After center-leftist president Dilma Rousseff's impeachment in 2016, Brazil faced political and economic instability under her center-right successor, Michel Temer, and later right-wing president, Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro, often compared to former US president Donald Trump, governed during significant political and economic turbulence.
Between 2017 and 2019, Brazil’s economic growth under Temer and Bolsonaro averaged just 1.4 percent. During the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, the economy shrunk by nearly 4 percent, rebounding in 2021 with a growth rate of 4.6 percent. However, persistent political crises led to a projected growth rate of less than 1 percent the following year. Bolsonaro’s right-wing policies, high inflation, and a hostile external environment were primarily responsible for his election defeat.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine further strained Brazil’s economy, disrupting trade relations. Brazil’s inflation rate rose as well, slowing down the economy. Contentious elections and more political bickering make sustained growth a challenge, surely uncertain. Rather than spell doom for a party, ousting them from government only means they’ll wait on the sidelines, knowing they have a chance to return in five years to disrupt subsisting economic policy.
As with much of Latin America, Brazil's outlook is bleak. Growing political dysfunction hampers any potential for long-term stability or growth, perpetuating a cycle of economic volatility.
